The Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN) is a non-profit, independent policy research organisation. It aims to bring together the knowledge, experience and drive of a large number of experts to better inform policy and to increase the understanding of Afghan realities. It is driven by engagement and curiosity and is committed to producing independent, high quality and research-based analysis on developments in Afghanistan. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org While half of the world is on holiday and the other half is going through the wiki-leaked documents or is wondering how to follow-up on the successes of the Kabul conference, the electoral campaign in Afghanistan is going ahead at least in parts of the country. The cities are covered in posters and banners, the newspapers carry campaign ads and the candidates in the provinces are trying to find ways around the limitations posed by security and powerful rivals. Listen to what some of the candidates and voters say, when talking about the elections: http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=940 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=940 Fri, 30 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT martine@afghanisthan-analysts.net (Martine van Bijlert) Wikileaks, with its publication of some 75,000 classified US military documents on the war in Afghanistan on Sunday, has brilliantly made use of the summer slump. Instead of escaped crocodiles at lakes popular with swimmers (a favourite of the German media in former years) or silly ideas of backbenchers, we have been given the chance to have a newly energised debate about Afghanistan. i.e. what the West is doing there, for what purpose and if were really good what Afghans (not only Karzai and the Taleban) want. It just can be hoped that this is not, again, turned into a purely domestic debate with the aim of scoring cheap political points. Therefore, it might be useful to check what is really new in the leaked documents and what the leak signifies. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=937 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=937 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT thomas@afghanisthan-analysts.net (Thomas Ruttig) The Kabul Conference has ended, the foreign ministers have left, the roads have reopened for traffic. Most Afghans seem unimpressed. Several of the big speeches, and probably quite a few of the smaller ones, impressed upon the audience that it was actions, not words that would ultimately count. They are of course right and I am sure the Afghan population agrees. But the words at the conference aimed to weave a new narrative which has very little to do with the realities of Afghanistan. Several things stood out starkly: the discussion of plans and policies as if there was no war going on, an optimism that economic development and effective government are within reach, and a level of ambition that was not, in any way, tempered by the realities of implementation. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=928 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=928 Sat, 24 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT martine@afghanisthan-analysts.net (Martine van Bijlert) Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (ed.), book chapter, forthcoming (Christoph Links Verlag, Berlin) http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=925 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=925 Fri, 23 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT info@afghanisthan-analysts.net (The Afghanistan Analysts Network) AAN has seen and studied the not yet public Afghan governments plan to reintegrate Taleban who lay down their arms. We also took a look at an earlier draft (see an earlier blog) and have been following the process since well before the London conference. Now comes the moment, at the Kabul Conference, when the foreigners will be asked to support and fund - the Afghan Peace and Reintegration Plan - to the tune of three quarters of a billion dollars. Kate Clark, AANs senior analyst, has been wading through the 80 page document to bring you her first impressions: that it is impossible to envisage this plan being actually implemented, but very easy to see how the money will get spent. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=911 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=911 Mon, 19 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT info@afghanisthan-analysts.net (The Afghanistan Analysts Network) For weeks I have dismissed the Kabul conference as yet another conference as something diplomats do, when they dont know what to do. It was, as usual, preceded by a merry-go-round of pre-meetings and document-drafting-sessions and discrete enquiries (who is coming from your side? are you pledging?), which made it look like simply more of the same. But now I am not so sure; things in Afghanistan are different this time. And the Kabul conference may turn out to be more than just a distraction. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=910 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=910 Mon, 19 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT martine@afghanisthan-analysts.net (Martine van Bijlert) The appointment of a new head of NDS (National Directorate of Security) has come with a lot less fanfare than the departure of the old one, Amrullah Saleh, who resigned after deep disagreements with the president over policy towards the Taleban. The acting director, Engineer Ibrahim Spinzada, has returned to the shadows and his day job as deputy head of the National Security Council, leaving one of his protégés, Engineer Rahmatullah Nabeel, in charge of Afghanistans intelligence apparatus. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=905 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=905 Sun, 18 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT info@afghanisthan-analysts.net (The Afghanistan Analysts Network) The vetting process on parliamentary candidates that was concluded on July 6 has resulted in the exclusion of 36 candidates for alleged links with armed groups, and a remarkable amount of confusion and doubt among those who tried to follow the process closely. There has been a consistent and intentional lack of transparency on where and how decisions were made, and many of the excluded candidates seem to have been randomly picked in an attempt to bolster numbers. Vetting for armed groups has been controversial in all elections, but this looks like it may well have been the worst vetting process so far. AAN researchers Fabrizio Foschini and Gran Hewad try to give a fairly precise account of what has become a very murky process indeed. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=894 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=894 Fri, 16 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT info@afghanisthan-analysts.net (The Afghanistan Analysts Network) Situated in a central position crossed by some of the most strategic road connections of the country, Baghlan province shows a high level of social and political fragmentation. The growing instability of the province does not bode well for the oncoming elections, and forecasts future problems for the government and the international forces in the area. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=886 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=886 Wed, 7 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT info@afghanisthan-analysts.net (The Afghanistan Analysts Network) Judges at the Royal Courts of Justice in London have given a mixed ruling on a bid to stop UK forces transferring detainees to the Afghan intelligence directorate, the NDS. They found that there was risk of torture which should make transfers illegal but ruled that they could continue to be transferred to the NDS in Lashkargar and Kandahar, so long as detainees were properly monitored, but not to Kabul (where transfers had already stopped) where the risk of torture was too great. Human rights campaigners have variously called the ruling cowardly and a partial victory which can be used to call British forces to account in the future. Senior AAN Analyst, Kate Clark, looks in detail at the ruling, at what it will mean for the British and the fascinating insight it gives into how foreign and Afghan institutions deal with each other and the way the UK has sought to find ways of working with an institution which tortures. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=885 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=885 Mon, 5 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT info@afghanisthan-analysts.net (The Afghanistan Analysts Network) One of the many ambiguities in the Afghan Constitution is on who has the authority to interpret the Constitution. For no obvious reason a mix of both judicial and legislative oversight was smuggled into the Constitution when it was adopted in 2004. Six years later, the Independent Commission for the Supervision of the Implementation of the Constitution (Komisiun-e Mostaqel-e Nezarat bar Tatbiq-e Qanun-e Asasi), as called for under article 157 of the Constitution, has been established. Although it is a step in the right direction towards constitutional compliance, it remains to be seen whether the Commission will solve some of the underlying problems of Afghanistans politicized justice system. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=877 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=877 Sat, 3 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT sari@afghanisthan-analysts.net (Sari Kouvo) Totally baseless, a lie and no truth in it. This is what an Afghan presidential spokesman said after a not-too-unimportant TV station reported contacts between Kabul and the Haqqani network, the most ruthless outfit of the Afghan insurgency. Is there no fire at all for all the smoke? asks Thomas Ruttig. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=873 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=873 Thu, 1 Jul 2010 00:00:00 GMT thomas@afghanisthan-analysts.net (Thomas Ruttig) (With the results of Mondays vote on eight ministries) Five more men have become ministers after gaining a majority of votes from the Afghan parliament. Two others failed to gain MPs approval. As with the earlier votes, both in January, allegations are circulating that some MPs votes were bought. While AAN is not accusing any individual candidate in their bid to gain parliamentary approval in Mondays ballot or the two earlier ones, whether successful or not, the allegations of bribery are impossible to ignore. They are also difficult to prove but now, AANs senior analyst Kate Clark brings evidence from one MP who has said she was offered and rejected a bribe in the January vote. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=870 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=870 Wed, 30 Jun 2010 00:00:00 GMT info@afghanisthan-analysts.net (The Afghanistan Analysts Network) Kabul Olympic Stadium sometimes was turned in to an arena for executions and floggings under the Taleban regime. For this, it became world-famous. But to do the venue some justice, most of the time it was used for proper sports. Thomas Ruttig visited a match there - football in Afghanistan 2000: Air goals by funnily clad players on a brownish-green pitch, in front of war-damaged stands with bullet-riddled walls and steaming samowars. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=868 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=868 Tue, 29 Jun 2010 00:00:00 GMT thomas@afghanisthan-analysts.net (Thomas Ruttig) The World Cup 2010 in South Africa is in its first round of the knock-out stage. It has seen favourite teams crashing and others shining. Afghanistan did not qualify. It lost both first round Asia qualification matches against Syria 1:5 on aggregate. Afghanistans only scorer was Obaidullah Karimi who plays for Hamm United FC in Germanys Landesliga North, the sixth-highest league. The home leg had to played in Tajikistan for security reasons. Afghanistan currently ranks 189 (among 210 countries and territories) in the FIFA(*) world ranking. But many Afghans watch it nevertheless. Local TV stations have long made sure that they can broadcast it legally, and - as elsewhere - experts analyse each match after the final whistle. Only ten years ago, things looked differently here - as our senior analyst Kate Clark, then with the BBC, reported in 2000. http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=867 http://www.aan-afghanistan.org/index.asp?id=867 Tue, 29 Jun 2010 00:00:00 GMT info@afghanisthan-analysts.net (The Afghanistan Analysts Network)